Communicating low-probability events
April 14, 2013 Filed under Blog, Featured, Publishing
Applying Salt and Grit
The authors start by asking, “What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public?” Through a role-playing game where students pretended to be in charge of a road-salting operation, LeClerc and Joslyn (2012) found that the students were more likely to salt when receiving forecasts of temperatures below 0°F in an odds ratio (6:1 chance of temperatures below 0°F) rather than a probability (17% chance).
The authors conclude:
We suspect that regardless of one’s level of education, “6 times greater” will seem more alarming than “17% chance.”
LeClerc, Jared, Susan Joslyn, 2012: Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events. Wea. Climate Soc., 4, 263–270.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00013.1
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